EE5311代写、代做Java/Python程序设计

日期：2024-04-19 08:25

EE5311 Assignment 2 (AY23/24 Semester 2)

This assignment counts toward 25% assessment for the course. This assignment is due for

submission by 26 April 2024.

The assignment problem below is open-ended and may admit many possible solutions. Bearing in mind that the assignment provides you an opportunity to practice what you learn

in this course, it is recommended that you think about how probabilistic programming

techniques you learn in the course might help you solve the problem.

You may discuss the assignment problem and the solution methodologies with other students

and the instructor, but you are not allowed to share code or project report with other students.

The Canvas discussion forum is a great place for discussions and/or clarification regarding this

assignment.

? Caution

Any copying or plagiarism will hamper your own learning, and may also result

in disciplinary action against you.

Problem Statement

You work for a government organization that regulates fishing in coastal waters to ensure long

term sustainability. The allowed fish harvest per year is reviewed every 5 years, and a stock

(fish population) assessment is undertaken before the next review.

Based on historical data, the Salmon harvest and stock estimates are as shown in Table 1.

The estimates are known to be noisy and the estimated accuracy is also shown in the

table.

If the Salmon stock drops below 100,000, experts have advised that there is a high chance of

population collapse due to over-fishing. Based on the historical data, your task is to recommend

the maximum allowable harvest for the next 5 year period, such that the Salmon stock at the

end of the 5 years will not drop below 100,000 with a 90% confidence level.

Table 1: Historical Salmon harvest and stock data

Harvest Stock at end of 5 years

20,000 264,410 ± 10,000

50,000 257,132 ± 10,000

80,000 251,466 ± 10,000

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Harvest Stock at end of 5 years

110,000 218,014 ± 10,000

140,000 199,986 ± 10,000

You may assume that the simple fisheries model presented in week 6 in class (see presentation

slides for details) is consistent with Salmon population dynamics in your country. However,

the maximum supportable population and reproduction rate for Salmon are not accurately

known for your coastal waters. Estimate these parameters from the data, and quantify the

uncertainty of your estimates and recommendation.

Submission requirements

(25 marks)

? Brief report (page limit: 3 pages) in pdf format, clearly outlining the method used for

your recommendation, and your recommendation on allowable Salmon harvest. Explain

how you obtained uncertainty estimates for the parameters and recommendation, and

justify any assumptions made.

? Well-commented runnable code yielding the results to support your recommendation.

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