代写Epidemic Hypothesis、C/C++代做、代写Java/Python编程、CS/Java程序代写

日期：2018-10-06 09:56

Epidemic Hypothesis Testing Lab 1

Introduction

Yesterday, the director of Statsville Public Heath confirmed a case of Statskewsis among the indigenous population of Leptokurts.  She is concerned as a recent Statskewsis outbreak involved more than 4000 cases. Statskewsis is a viral illness that causes swollen and tender joints, particularly in the feet and ankles, as well as fever, headache and body aches. It also impacts the inner ear leading to difficulty in finding balance. It is spread much like the flu – through coughing and sneezing – and symptoms usually occur 14 to 18 days after infection.

Two potential vaccines are currently being tested in the prevention of Statskewsis, AlignItUp and BeStraight. Often these are simply referred to as Treatment A and Treatment B respectively. Both have shown some evidence of success when compared against a placebo. However, more testing is needed to determine which is most effective. Neither drug is expected to have complications as they are both made completely of natural ingredients.  Due to the limited testing completed so far, caution should be used when prescribing either drug.

Instructions

Go to the web site  

https://oliverdwodunne.github.io/epidemic/

This site may take a few minutes to load.

Enter the Group ID of APU.  

Input your own Personal ID.  Note that this ID will be on the web. Do not use a player name that will identify you.  Also, do not choose a name that is unprofessional or offensive.  Record your Player ID on this worksheet.

Player ID_______________________.

1)We will begin by playing the game on level 1.   Select level 1 (the level 1 box will be larger) then read the game rules before clicking play.

2)To treat patients slide the syringe corresponding to the desired treatment type.  For example, in the picture to the right the syringe for treatment A was dragged until 10 (40%) of the patients (now highlighted in green) will be given Treatment A.  The syringe for treatment B is to the right and is dragged left to select patients for Treatment B.  

3)Determine how many patients you wish to treat on Day 1 with each treatment then click “Next Day”.  Note that you do not need to treat a patient on a given day.  Pay attention to the treatment costs in deciding how to apply the treatments!  Notice that there is also a cost associated with each new sick person regardless of whether they are treated.

4)After clicking “Next Day” the test tubes on the right of the screen will update to display how many patients you have given each treatment (shown above the test tube) and how many were cured with each treatment.  In the example shown to the right, 10 patients were given Treatment A and 6 of them were cured.  No patients were given Treatment B.

PART I:  LEVEL ONE

TASK #1:  record your results for Day 1 below.   Then conduct a hypothesis test to determine if there is a difference (statistically) between the two treatments (note: if you did not use both treatments on Day 1 play an additional days until you have data for both treatments).  Be sure to completely describe all the steps needed to conduct a hypothesis test (to include giving the null and alternative hypothesis, and a complete conclusion statement).  USE R (prop.test) for the computations noting the key outputs below.

Treatment A results:  __________ treated Treatment B results:   __________ treated

  __________ cured__________ cured

      HYPOTHESIS TEST:

TASK #2:  based on your TASK #1 results, which treatment do you think is better?  How sure are you?  What is your strategy for the next day and why?

TASK #3:  Play for another day using the strategy outlined in TASK #2.   Record the results after this day below and conduct another hypothesis test (summarizing the results).  Based on these new results, what is your conclusion about the two treatments?  How sure are you now?  

Treatment A results:  __________ treated Treatment B results:   __________ treated

  __________ cured__________ cured

      HYPOTHESIS TEST RESULT (briefly summarize, no need to give full test as it was done in TASK #1):

      CONCLUSIONS ABOUT THE TREATMENTS:

STRATEGY UPDATE:

TASK #4:  Complete the game using any strategy you wish each day. When you finish, a “Submit” button will appear to the left of the test tubes.  Click this to record your data.  The “Data Spreadsheet” button at the top of the screen will take you to a spreadsheet with results from all games played so you can review the data for your game.   Record the final results below and conduct a hypothesis test on the final data you collected.  

LEVEL ONE RESULTS:

Overall result (win/lose):________________________      Funds left: ____________________

Days:_________________________Total Patients:_____________________________

Treatment A results:   __________ treated Treatment B results:   __________ treated

   __________ cured             __________ cured

HYPOTHESIS TEST RESULT (briefly summarize, no need to give full test as it was done in TASK #1):

CONCLUSIONS ABOUT THE TREATMENT

PART II:  LEVEL THREE

TASK #5:  Play the game again but using LEVEL 3.  Note the new costs for this level. You may use any strategy you wish each day.  Make note of which day (if ever) you were confident about which treatment is better on this level, what your strategy for play was throughout the game.  Record your game results below. NOTE that the effectiveness of the treatments are different in this level and will need to be based on new tests.

LEVEL 3 GAME FINAL RESULTS:

Overall result (win/lose):________________________      Funds left: ____________________

Days:_________________________Total Patients:_____________________________

Treatment A results:   __________ treated Treatment B results:   __________ treated

   __________ cured             __________ cured

Brief description of strategy to include when you decided one treatment was better:

TASK #6:  Using the data from the day you decided one treatment was better (you may need to look in the spreadsheet if you cannot recall) OR the final data if you were never sure, conduct a hypothesis test to compare the treatments:

TASK #7:  Is one treatment statistically better on level three?  Does your belief about the treatments agree with the hypothesis test conclusion?  Explain.

TASK #8:  In making a decision about which treatment to use, how valuable is a statistical test?  What are potential issues with using only statistics in making such a decision?  What, if any, other considerations should be used?