Emergency Facilities代写、代写R编程设计、R设计代做

日期：2020-01-17 10:05

Emergency Facilities Readiness Project

Overview and Rationale

This project is designed to provide you with hands-on experiences in performing

simulation techniques – a method that students learn to use for decision-making purposes.

You are asked to use simulation to evaluate the readiness and competency of a local

emergency facilities.

Course Outcomes

This assignment is directly linked to the following key learning outcomes from the course

syllabus:

CO1: Use descriptive, Heuristic and prescriptive analysis to drive business strategies

and actions

CO3: Analyze the role of analytics in supporting decision making for various other

stakeholder groups within and outside of your organization

Assignment Summary

University administers at a local University have recently launched several planning

projects to determine how effectively local emergency facilities such as local hospitals can

handle natural disasters (weather, fire,…). One of these projects focused on the transport of

disaster victims from the campus to the five major hospitals in the area 1:

(i) Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center

(ii) Tufts Medical Center

(iii) Massachusetts General Hospital

(iv) Boston Medical Center

(v) Brigham and Women’s Hospital

The project team would like to determine how many victims each hospital might expect in

a disaster, and how long it would take to transport victims to the hospitals. However,

because of lack of historical data on disasters in the area, the project team have decided to

assume that the total number of victims is best approximated by a triangular probability

distribution with a minimum and a maximum of respectively 20 and 300 victims, and with

a peak of 80 victims.

The emergency facilities and capabilities at the five hospitals vary. The following table

describes how victims will be distributed to the hospitals in the event of a disaster

situation:

Hospital Allocation of Disaster

Victims

Beth Israel Medical 30%

Tufts Medical 15%

Massachusetts General 20%

Boston Medical 25%

Brigham and Women’s 10%

The proximity of the hospitals to the university campus also varies. It is estimated that the

transport times to each of the hospitals is exponentially distributed with a certain average

that depends on that hospital. The following table indicates the average of the transport

time for each hospital.

Hospital Average in Minutes

Beth Israel Medical 7

Tufts Medical 10

Massachusetts General 15

Boston Medical 15

Brigham and Women’s 20

For simplicity, we may assume that each hospital has two emergency vehicles, so that one

leaves the university campus when the other one leaves the hospital. This means that one

emergency vehicle arrives at the campus when the other arrives at the hospital. Therefore,

the total transport time for each hospital will be the sum of transporting each victim to that

hospital.

Project Instructions:

1. Perform a simulation analysis consisting of 5,000 simulations to determine:

a. Average number of victims that can be expected at each hospital.

b. For each hospital, the average total time (in hours) needed to transport all

victims.

c. For part (a) above, create a chart the displays the Law of Large Numbers in

action for the Beth Israel Medical. (Law of large numbers: As the number of trials

becomes larger, the observed averages approach to the theoretical average.)

d. For the Beth Israel Medical hospital, perform an exploratory data analysis of the

total transport time by:

i. Calculating a 95% confidence interval for the total transport time,

ii. Determining a probability distribution that best fits the total transport

time (in hours).

iii. Supporting your assertion in part (ii) by creating a frequency distribution

and performing a Chi-squared Goodness of fit test.

e. Let ?? denote the average transport time (in minutes) per victim for the entire

process of transporting all victims. Perform an exploratory data analysis of ??.

2. Perform a simulation analysis consisting of 5,000 simulations in another worksheet of

your workbook; however, assume that the total number of victims is normally

distributed with a mean of 150 victims and a standard deviation of 50 victims.

Furthermore, suppose that the transport time for each hospital is normally distributed

with a mean and a standard deviation that differ for each hospital. The table below

displays these quantities:

Hospital Average in Minutes SD in Minutes

Beth Israel Medical 7 2

Tufts Medical 10 4

Massachusetts General 15 3

Boston Medical 15 5

Brigham and Women’s 20 3

Analyze the results of this simulation by repeating parts (a) – (e) of part 1 using the

above values.

3. In the word document, explain your methodologies and conclusions.

4. In the word document, provide your opinion regarding a few major quantitative and

qualitative differences between the outputs of simulations (1) and (2) above.

5. In the word document, explain how the information obtained from your simulation can

be used for planning purposes.

6. In the word document, explain in your opinion, how each simulation can be changed to

provide additional useful information.

Format & Guidelines

Complete Parts 1, and 2 of the Project Instructions above. Each part must be in a different

file.

Complete Parts 3, 4, 5 and 6 as part in your report. The report should follow the following

format:

(i) Introduction

(ii) Analysis

(iii) Conclusion

And be a minimum of 1000 words and be presented in the APA format.

Reference:

1. University Health and Counselling Services. Northeastern University. Emergencies.

Retrieved from: https://www.northeastern.edu/uhcs/medical-services/emergencies/

2. Taylor III, B.W. (2011) Introduction to Management Sciences. Prentice Hall. Upper

Saddle River, NJ

Rubric

Category Exceeds Standards Meets Standards Approaching

Standards Below Standards

R: Problem

Modeling &

Set-up

ALY6050-CO1

Completely and

concisely modeled the

problem in Excel (or

R) for each method

Accurately modeled

the problem in Excel

(or R) for each method

Correctly modeled the

problem in Excel (or

R) for each method,

but the model lacks

detailed insight into

the problem or the setup

is awkward.

Modeled the problem

in Excel (or R) for each

method, but there are

some gaps in the

problem modeling and

setup

R: Problem

Solution &

Accuracy

ALY6050-CO1

Efficiently obtained

correct and accurate

solutions in Excel (or

R) by using the

appropriate analytic

tools of the software

Obtained complete

and accurate solutions

in Excel (or R) by

using the appropriate

analytic tools of the

software

Obtained correct

solutions in Excel (or

R) using the

appropriate analytic

tools of the software,

but the application of

the tool is awkward.

Obtained a solutions in

Excel (or R) by using

the appropriate

analytic tools of the

software, but the

solution is not

complete.

Word/Report:

Problem

Description &

Introduction

ALY6050-CO3

Provides a thorough

and concise summary

of the problem

descriptions and

introduced the

problem using rich

and significant ideas

Provides an accurate

and succinct summary

of the problem

descriptions and

problem introduction

Provides an accurate

summary of the

problem descriptions

and problem

introduction, but the

description is too

wordy or not succinct

Provided a summary of

the problem

descriptions and

problem introduction,

but it is inaccurate or

incomplete

Word/Report:

Description of

Problem

Analysis

ALY6050-CO3

Provides a thorough

and precise

description of the

analytic concepts and

theories used in

analyzing the problem

Accurately describes

the analytic concepts

and theories used in

analyzing the problem

Describes the analytic

concepts and theories

used in analyzing the

problem, but

description lacks

appropriate detail or

precision

Describes the

analytical concepts

and theories used in

analyzing the problem,

but descriptions are

incorrect or the

analytical concepts

and theories are

incorrect

Word/Report:

Description of

Conclusions

ALY6050-CO3

Provides conclusions

and results obtained in

the project using a

high level of critical

thinking and

reasoning

Provides relevant

conclusions and

results obtained in the

project that reflect

critical thinking and

reasoning

Provides conclusions

and results obtained in

the project, but not all

conclusions or results

are relevant to the

problem or not all

conclusions reflect

good reasoning

Provides conclusions

and results obtained in

the project, but they

are irrelevant and

reflect a lack of critical

thinking

Category Exceeds Standards Meets Standards Approaching

Standards Below Standards

Word/Report:

Writing

Mechanics,

Title Page, &

References

Completely free of

errors in grammar,

spelling, and

punctuation; and

completely correct

usage of title page,

citations, and

references. The report

contains a minimum of

1000 words

There are no

noticeable errors in

grammar, spelling, and

punctuation; and

completely correct

usage of title page,

citations, and

references. The report

contains a minimum of

1000 words

There are very few

errors in grammar,

spelling, and

punctuation; and

completely correct

usage of title page,

citations, and

references. The report

contains a minimum of

1000 words

There are more than

five errors in

grammar, spelling, and

punctuation; or the

usage of title page,

citations, and

references are

incomplete; or the

report contains less

than 1000 words